That Was the Week That Was - 24th May 2025

Strategic Briefing: 17–23 May 2025

1. Introduction

In a week where the world’s tectonic plates shifted with bureaucratic precision, we witnessed a curious blend of de-escalation and rearmament, diplomacy and deterrence. From the Baltic to the Bay of Bengal, states flexed muscles while shaking hands—sometimes simultaneously. One might call it progress, if only the sabres weren’t rattling quite so loudly.

2. Top Geopolitical & Defence Events of the Week

Germany’s Baltic Commitment: A Historic Deployment

What happened: Germany announced the permanent deployment of the 45th Tank Brigade to Lithuania, marking its first such foreign stationing since WWII. The brigade will comprise 4,800 troops and 200 civilian staff, reaching full operational capacity by 2027. 

Why it matters: This move underscores Germany’s shift from post-war military restraint to proactive NATO engagement, particularly in response to Russian aggression. It signals Berlin’s commitment to Eastern European security and a more assertive defence posture within the alliance.

UK-EU Relations: A Pragmatic Reset

What happened: The UK and EU signed a comprehensive “reset” deal, reintroducing the UK into the Erasmus programme, easing agrifood trade barriers, and establishing a defence pact linked to the EU’s €150bn rearmament fund. 

Why it matters: Five years post-Brexit, this agreement marks a significant thaw in UK-EU relations, balancing sovereignty with economic pragmatism. It reflects a mutual recognition of interdependence in trade, education, and security.

Chagos Islands: Sovereignty Transferred

What happened: The UK finalized an agreement to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, while leasing back the Diego Garcia military base for £101 million annually over 99 years. 

Why it matters: This move addresses longstanding decolonization pressures and international legal rulings. While maintaining strategic military interests, the UK acknowledges shifting norms around colonial legacies and sovereignty.

India-Oman Trade Pact Nears Completion

What happened: India and Oman are close to finalizing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), aimed at enhancing bilateral trade and investment flows. 

Why it matters: This prospective agreement strengthens India’s economic ties in the Gulf region, diversifying its trade partnerships and counterbalancing China’s Belt and Road Initiative influence.

U.S.-EU Trade Talks: Echoes of UK Deal

What happened: Italy expressed confidence that the U.S. and EU will reach a trade agreement similar to the recent U.S.-UK deal, which included tariff adjustments and increased market access. 

Why it matters: This suggests a U.S. strategy of negotiating bilateral trade deals with individual European nations, potentially undermining EU unity and influencing the bloc’s internal dynamics.

NSA Doval’s Moscow Visit: S-400 Deliveries on Agenda

What happened: India’s National Security Adviser, Ajit Doval, is set to visit Russia to discuss the expedited delivery of the remaining S-400 missile defence systems. 

Why it matters: This visit highlights India’s balancing act between deepening defence ties with Russia and managing its strategic partnerships with Western nations, amidst evolving global alignments.

NATO’s Formidable Shield: A Show of Force

What happened: The NATO-led “Formidable Shield 2025” exercise concluded, featuring over 45 missile and gun engagements simulating real-world threats, including ballistic missile defence scenarios. 

Why it matters: Demonstrating advanced interoperability and readiness, this exercise reinforces NATO’s deterrence posture, particularly in the face of evolving missile threats from adversarial states.

QinetiQ Secures £1.5bn Defence Contract

What happened: The UK Ministry of Defence extended a £1.5 billion contract with QinetiQ for testing, training, and evaluation services across 16 sites, supporting over 1,200 jobs. 

Why it matters: This investment underscores the UK’s commitment to maintaining cutting-edge defence capabilities and supporting domestic defence industries amidst global uncertainties.

Fleet Week 2025: Celebrating Naval Heritage

What happened: New York hosted Fleet Week 2025, commemorating the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps with ship tours, flyovers, and public demonstrations. 

Why it matters: Beyond public relations, such events bolster national pride, support recruitment efforts, and reaffirm the U.S. commitment to maritime dominance.

3. How These Events Connect (or Don’t)

This week’s developments reveal a complex tapestry of strategic realignments:

• European Security: Germany’s deployment and NATO exercises signal a robust response to perceived Russian threats, while the UK-EU reset reflects a pragmatic approach to shared security and economic interests.
• Global Trade Dynamics: The U.S.’s bilateral trade negotiations with the UK and potentially the EU indicate a shift towards individualized agreements, challenging multilateral trade frameworks. 
• Indo-Pacific Strategy: India’s engagements with Oman and Russia demonstrate its pursuit of diversified partnerships to enhance its strategic autonomy amidst U.S.-China rivalries.
• Colonial Legacies: The UK’s transfer of the Chagos Islands’ sovereignty addresses historical injustices, aligning with broader global movements towards decolonization and self-determination. 

4. Predictions for the Month Ahead

• EU-U.S. Trade Agreement: Expect intensified negotiations, with the EU aiming to secure terms comparable to the U.S.-UK deal, potentially leading to internal EU debates over trade policy cohesion.
• India’s Strategic Balancing: India will likely continue to navigate its relationships with Russia and Western allies, seeking to expedite defence procurements while maintaining diplomatic equilibrium.
• NATO’s Eastern Flank: Further military deployments and exercises may occur as NATO reinforces its eastern borders, potentially prompting Russian countermeasures or rhetoric.
• UK Domestic Politics: The Chagos Islands’ sovereignty transfer and the EU reset deal may face domestic scrutiny, influencing political discourse and party dynamics within the UK. 

5. Fun Fact of the Week

When Germany announced its first permanent foreign troop deployment since the Second World War, it slipped in a striking detail: the new Lithuanian base will include a purpose-built “Tank Wine Cellar”—a diplomatic nod to the region’s cold winters and the Bundeswehr’s… taste for preparedness. According to one German official, “If the Russians come, we’ll be warm, well-fed, and reasonably well-lubricated.”

The cellar, of course, is mostly symbolic—but in geopolitics, symbols are rarely just that.

Report Ends