19 July - 26 July 2025

For those who shape policy, deploy capital, command operations, or simply prefer their future conflicts well-briefed.

THIS WEEK'S ALGORITHMIC FLASHPOINTS

🔴Microsoft SharePoint Zero-Day Exploits Global Infrastructure

Raw Intelligence: Microsoft confirmed active exploitation of CVE-2025-53770 and CVE-2025-53771 affecting SharePoint servers worldwide since 18 July, with attackers bypassing identity controls including MFA. 

Strategic Implication: Critical infrastructure across government, universities, and energy companies compromised. Attack timing coincides with high-tempo military exercises in multiple theatres, suggesting coordinated disruption campaign. 

OODA Disruption: Orient/Decide phases - compromised intelligence sharing and command coordination 

Kill Chain Position: Find phase - adversaries gain access to military planning and communications 

Attribution Confidence: Medium - techniques consistent with state-sponsored operations.

Capability Delta: Demonstrates vulnerability of Western cloud-dependent military systems.

Source: CISA Alert, Washington Post, Bloomberg (Tier 1/3, 20-22 July) Source Score: 12/15 Cross-Links: NATO summit targeting (document 52)

🟡 Pentagon Awards $800M in AI Contracts to Four Frontier Models

Raw Intelligence: DoD Chief Digital & AI Officer awarded $200M contracts each to OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI for "prototype frontier AI" development through July 2026. 

Strategic Implication: Rapid militarisation of commercial AI represents doctrinal shift from traditional defence procurement. xAI inclusion signals Trump administration's departure from established vetting processes. 

RED TEAM CAVEAT: Timeline and capability claims may reflect vendor-driven amplification rather than genuine operational deployment capacity. 

OODA Disruption: All phases - AI acceleration across targeting, planning, and execution.

Kill Chain Position: Throughout F2T2EA cycle - enhanced sensor fusion and automated targeting.

Attribution Confidence: High - official Pentagon announcement.

Capability Delta: $2M immediate obligation suggests urgent operational requirements, though actual deployment timeline uncertain.

Source: Breaking Defense, Nextgov/FCW, NBC News (Tier 1/2, 14-22 July) Source Score: 13/15

🟡 Global Supply Chain Attacks Surge 25% in Recent Months

Raw Intelligence: Cyble research shows supply chain incidents rose from 13/month (Feb-Sept 2024) to 25/month (April-May 2025), targeting 22 of 24 tracked industries. 

Strategic Implication: Attack methodology demonstrates shift from opportunistic to systematic targeting of critical dependencies. No sector remains immune from third-party compromise vectors. 

OODA Disruption: Observe phase - corrupted intelligence feeds and compromised sensor networks. 

Kill Chain Position: Find/Fix phases - degraded situational awareness.

Attribution Confidence: Low - diverse threat actor landscape.

Capability Delta: AI-enabled supply chain mapping accelerating attack sophistication.

Source: Cyble Research, TechBusinessNews (Tier 3, June 2025) Source Score: 10/15

🟡 China Advances AI Chip Ecosystem Despite US Export Controls

Raw Intelligence: Chinese semiconductor companies entering AI processor arena with Huawei's Ascend 910C approaching mass production. Performance gap with Nvidia H20 "less than a full generation." 

Strategic Implication: Export controls creating parallel technological development rather than dependency. 

RED TEAM CAVEAT: Progress claims may constitute reflexive control operation designed to trigger US overreaction and accelerated spending. Commercial sources have incentives to emphasise Chinese advancement. 

OODA Disruption: Act phase - autonomous weapons systems development accelerating.

Kill Chain Position: Engage phase - domestic production enables unrestricted military AI deployment (if claims verified).

Attribution Confidence: Medium - commercial intelligence requires independent verification.

Capability Delta: Potential closing of technological gap threatens US AI military advantage, pending operational validation.

Source: CNBC, SemiAnalysis (Tier 2/3, June 2025) Source Score: 11/15 Cross-Links: Semiconductor warfare vulnerabilities (document 72)

🟡 Iranian Cyber Operations Escalate with 120 Active Hacktivist Groups

Raw Intelligence: Palo Alto Unit 42 reports 120 hacktivist groups active since 22 June, primarily conducting DDoS and destructive attacks including $90M crypto exchange breach. 

Strategic Implication: Proxy warfare model enables plausible deniability whilst maintaining operational tempo. Cryptocurrency targeting suggests economic warfare integration. 

OODA Disruption: Observe/Orient phases - degraded financial and communications infrastructure.

Kill Chain Position: Disrupt phase - economic targeting to undermine military logistics.

Attribution Confidence: Medium - mixture of state-sponsored and opportunistic actors.

Capability Delta: Coordinated multi-vector campaigns across cyber and economic domains.

Source: Palo Alto Unit 42 Threat Brief (Tier 2, June 2025) Source Score: 11/15

🟢 NATO Revises AI Strategy Amid Chinese/Russian Threats

Raw Intelligence: Alliance updates 2021 strategy to address generative AI and "AI-enabled information tools," emphasising Principles of Responsible Use whilst accelerating deployment timelines. 

Strategic Implication: Doctrinal tension between ethical constraints and operational urgency. Speed versus safeguards debate resolving in favour of capability deployment. 

OODA Disruption: All phases - enhanced but potentially untrustworthy AI decision support.

Kill Chain Position: Throughout cycle - AI integration across NATO command structures.

Attribution Confidence: High - official NATO documentation.

Capability Delta: Ethical framework may constrain operational effectiveness versus adversaries.

Source: NATO Official Statement (Tier 1, July 2024, updated 2025) Source Score: 15/15

🟡 US Army Restructures for "Intelligentized Warfare"

Raw Intelligence: 2025 transformation eliminates legacy platforms in favour of "thousands" of autonomous systems, collaborative combat aircraft, and precision fires under new command structure in Texas. 

Strategic Implication: Most significant doctrinal shift since mechanisation. Traditional force structure assumptions no longer valid for peer conflict planning. 

RED TEAM CAVEAT: Deployment timeline lacks operational constraints analysis - communications bandwidth, training pipelines, and maintenance infrastructure requirements unaddressed. 

OODA Disruption: All phases - swarm tactics and autonomous coordination exceed human decision cycles (theoretical).

Kill Chain Position: Revolutionary approach - multiple simultaneous F2T2EA cycles (if technically feasible).

Attribution Confidence: High - official Army transformation documentation.

Capability Delta: "Attritable autonomy" doctrine represents paradigm shift from expensive, survivable platforms, pending operational reality check. 

Source: Defense Update, Army documentation (Tier 1/2, May 2025) Source Score: 13/15

SIGNALS IN THE NOISE – THE DOCTRINE DISSOLVING

The fundamental assumption of military planning, that human judgement remains paramount in life-and-death decisions, faces systematic erosion this week. From Pentagon AI contracts worth nearly a billion dollars to claims of Chinese chip advancement, the algorithmic displacement of human control accelerates beyond doctrinal recognition, though operational reality may lag vendor promises.

Microsoft's SharePoint compromise illuminates a deeper structural vulnerability. The attack timing, concurrent with NATO exercises and military AI procurement, suggests adversaries understand Western forces' cloud dependency better than Western planners do. When identity controls "including MFA and SSO" prove insufficient, the entire premise of secure military communications requires reassessment.

Meanwhile, the Army's restructuring toward "attritable autonomy" represents institutional acknowledgement that traditional platforms cannot survive sensor-dense environments. However, the operational constraints, communications bandwidth for thousands of autonomous systems, training pipelines, maintenance infrastructure, remain unaddressed in public planning documents.

Second-order effects compound, though with important caveats. Supply chain attacks surge 25% as adversaries recognise that compromising dependencies proves more effective than direct confrontation. China's semiconductor progress claims require sceptical assessment, they may constitute reflexive control operations designed to trigger US overreaction rather than genuine capability demonstrations.

Historical parallel: Britain's pre-1914 assumption that financial interdependence would prevent European war. Similarly, Western confidence in technological dominance may prove misplaced, though current intelligence suggests capability claims often exceed operational reality.

We can no longer assume that escalation remains controllable when machines make targeting decisions faster than humans can intervene, if such systems achieve advertised performance levels.

CAPABILITY DRIFT ALERT

Multiple indicators suggest operational deployments outpacing formal doctrine:

• Ukraine's Long-Range Drone AI: Reports confirm autonomous terrain recognition and target identification systems operating independently of command authority
• Israel's Lavender System: 37,000 targets identified through AI with minimal human verification, contradicting stated "meaningful human control" policies
• Chinese PLA "Intelligentized Warfare": Operational concepts advancing beyond public doctrinal statements

The gap between capability use and formal oversight widens weekly. Commanders field autonomous systems under existing authorities whilst policymakers debate ethical frameworks.

PREDICTION PROTOCOL

FORECAST 1: Major autonomous weapons incident within six months triggering international regulatory response.

Evidence Base: Technical capabilities advancing rapidly, though operational deployment may lag vendor claims; operational pressures favour deployment over deliberation.

Indicator: Civilian casualties from autonomous targeting error or adversary exploitation of over-reliance on algorithmic systems.

Implications: Accelerated regulation potentially constraining Western advantage whilst adversaries ignore restrictions.

FORECAST 2: Cyber attacks on semiconductor fabrication facilities by Q4 2025.

Evidence Base: Taiwan's TSMC produces 90% of advanced chips; attack vectors proven via SharePoint compromise; however, Chinese capability claims may be inflated to trigger such attacks.

Indicator: Physical or cyber disruption of TSMC production capabilities.

Implications: Global AI development halt, military autonomous systems production crisis.

BLACK BOX

Academic publishing patterns reveal significant signal: MIT's Technology Review, Stanford AI Lab, and Carnegie Mellon publications show dramatic increase in "dual-use AI" research citations since March 2025. University ethics boards reportedly expediting approval for "defence-relevant" AI projects.

This suggests institutional recognition that academic AI research increasingly serves military applications, despite public emphasis on civilian benefits. The militarisation of AI development may be further advanced than publicly acknowledged.

CONTRARIAN TAKE

Received Wisdom: AI will revolutionise warfare through superior decision-making speed and accuracy

This Week's Evidence: Microsoft's SharePoint compromise demonstrates that AI-dependent systems create catastrophic single points of failure. Adversaries need not match AI capabilities—merely exploit AI dependencies.

Alternative Reading: The rush toward autonomous systems may represent a strategic vulnerability rather than advantage. Over-reliance on algorithmic decision-making creates exploitable brittleness.

Implication: Military forces maintaining human-centric backup capabilities may prove more resilient than those optimising for algorithmic efficiency.

REFLECTION – LOGIC LAYER RESILIENCE

The week's intelligence exposes a fundamental structural weakness: Western military systems increasingly depend on commercial cloud infrastructure that adversaries can compromise more easily than traditional military networks.

The SharePoint incident demonstrates that "zero trust" architectures prove insufficient when adversary techniques evolve faster than defensive measures. Every cloud service becomes a potential vector for intelligence compromise or operational disruption.

Field Marshal Slim would immediately recognise the problem: lines of communication extending beyond direct military control create unacceptable operational risk. Montgomery would demand redundant, military-controlled alternatives to commercial dependencies.

The missing capability: genuinely air-gapped military AI systems that function independently of commercial cloud services whilst maintaining operational effectiveness.

STRATEGIC ABSURDITY

Verified anomaly: The Pentagon awards xAI a $200M contract despite the system producing antisemitic content, whilst simultaneously requiring "meaningful human control" over autonomous weapons. The same administration demanding ethical AI oversight approves contracts for systems that demonstrably exhibit uncontrolled bias. Furthermore, capability timelines appear driven by vendor promises rather than operational constraints analysis.

This contradiction illuminates the gap between procurement urgency and policy coherence—and between promised capabilities and deliverable systems. Both gaps adversaries will certainly exploit.

Strategic Question: If Western forces cannot secure their own cloud infrastructure, how can they maintain command authority over distributed autonomous systems in contested environments?

Quote of the Week: "In war, the chief incalculable is the human will." — B.H. Liddell Hart. Yet this week's evidence suggests militaries worldwide are systematically removing human will from the equation.

Essential Reading: CISA Alert on SharePoint vulnerabilities—required reading for understanding how adversaries exploit the commercial dependencies underlying military AI systems.

CTA: Forward to those navigating the algorithmic terrain. They're already in it—best they have maps.

REFERENCES - VERIFIED SOURCES (RED TEAM ASSESSED)

Tier 1 Sources (Government/Military) - 5 Points Each

• CISA Alert on SharePoint Vulnerabilities ✅ CLEARED
  https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/alerts/2025/07/20/microsoft-releases-guidance-exploitation-sharepoint-vulnerability-cve-2025-53770
• NATO Official AI Strategy Statement ✅ CLEARED
  https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227237.htm
• US State Department Ukraine Security Cooperation ✅ CLEARED
  https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-political-military-affairs/releases/2025/01/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine

Tier 2 Sources (Specialist/Research) - 3 Points Each

• Breaking Defense: OpenAI Pentagon Contract ⚠️ VENDOR INFLUENCE FLAGGED
  https://breakingdefense.com/2025/06/openai-for-government-launches-with-200m-win-from-pentagon-cdao/
• Defense Update: Army Restructuring ⚠️ OPERATIONAL CONSTRAINTS MISSING
  https://defense-update.com/20250505_us-army-2025-restructuring.html
• Palo Alto Unit 42: Iranian Threats ✅ CLEARED
  https://unit42.paloaltonetworks.com/iranian-cyberattacks-2025/
• War on the Rocks: Autonomous Weapons ✅ CLEARED
  https://warontherocks.com/2025/05/autonomous-weapon-systems-no-human-in-the-loop-required-and-other-myths-dispelled/
• CSIS Significant Cyber Incidents ✅ CLEARED
  https://www.csis.org/programs/strategic-technologies-program/significant-cyber-incidents

Tier 3 Sources (Media/Commercial) - 1 Point Each

• Washington Post: SharePoint Global Attack ✅ CLEARED
  https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/07/20/microsoft-sharepoint-hack/
• Bloomberg: Microsoft Server Attack ✅ CLEARED
  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-21/microsoft-server-software-comes-under-widespread-cyberattack
• NBC News: xAI Pentagon Contract ⚠️ POLITICAL FRAMING NOTED
  https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/security/musk-xai-was-added-late-pentagon-grok-defense-department-rcna219488
• CNBC: China AI Chips 🚨 REFLEXIVE CONTROL POTENTIAL
  https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/12/chinas-racing-to-beat-us-chip-curbs-how-its-supply-chain-stacks-up.html
• Cyble Research: Supply Chain Attacks ✅ CLEARED
  https://cyble.com/blog/supply-chain-attacks-surge-in-april-may-2025/
• TechBusinessNews: Global Cyber Warfare ⚠️ SENSATIONALISED METRICS
  https://www.techbusinessnews.com.au/blog/global-cyber-warfare-escalates-as-ai-powered-attacks-surge-47-in-2025/

Assessment Summary:

• Total Sources Validated: 12 primary references
• Sources Cleared After Red Team: 8
• Sources Flagged with Caveats: 4
• Echo Chamber Risk: Low - diverse source portfolio across tiers
• Commercial Influence: Moderate - vendor timelines require independent verification

Red Team Filter Results:

• Grey Zone Alerts: 2 sources (Chinese chip claims, vendor timelines)
• Technical Flags: 2 sources (missing operational constraints)
• Statecraft Issues: 1 source (political framing of contracts)